NZ Elections 05 — Category

It has been interesting in the past week. The week before the tax cut package Don Brash announced did little impact on the polls following shortly after, but now that people can see what exactly the tax cut package, and Don Brash bringing in the “one Law for all” stuff again, they have jumped ahead.

The latest poll from One News (which, albiet, tends to go a little for National) shows National up six points with Labour down five since last Sunday, giving National an eight point edge over Labour. They are saying that these are the swings from Orewa 1.0 in January last year. After that speech, nothing really eventuated except for Labour running round going “we have no race-based funding,” then a couple of months down the track looking a bit red in the face admitting that there actually was.

However, for National to actually become government, they need NZ First, and it was proven a couple of days ago in that One News poll, that showed it’s leader (Winston Peters) is looking a bit low in the polls these days, and the party just below the five percent threshold. The rounding was in their favour however.

Also interesting was Helen Clark was dipping in the popularity stakes, however is still favoured above Don Brash. I think that this election is showing the side of Helen that people least like, the side that makes you cringe. We are still to see a Labour ad that actually shows something to do with policies. Oh wait, I did see that one with the elderly lady kicking the ball, however the rest have been attacking (Don/Key anyone?). The new National ads are showing a more personal side to Don, while he talks about “mainstream New Zealanders.”

Things are getting interesting on the election trail. Tomorrow One News will release it’s new set of weeks polling data and then we’ll see who is ahead, other polls indicate either National in the lead or going neck-and-neck with Labour.

Kim Hill of Face to Face on TV One put Helen on the spot. They provide transcripts, here’s something:

Talking about U-turns, then onto the student loans policy
HILL: But have you struck oil?
CLARK: (Shock, confusion) Struck oil? Kim…
HILL: Earlier this year… Earlier this year… Ms Clark.
CLARK: What we have struck is a strongly growing economy… (Once again butting in)
HILL: Not enough.
CLARK: …under a Labour Government, and it is enough. 270,000 more New Zealanders in work today under a Labour Government.
HILL: Earlier this year, Education Minister Trevor Mallard said major changes to student-loan policy were only likely to happen if New Zealand struck oil and we were guaranteed economic security for the next 50 years.
CLARK: Well, I don’t think that was a particularly sensible statement for Trevor to make.
HILL: Another not-sensible statement for Trevor to make?
CLARK: Well, people make some not very sensible statements, but my point is that I have consistently said that as much as we can do for student support, we will. I’m actually on the record as saying that if I had a magic wand, I would give every student an allowance like I had when I was a student. That happens to be more in the region of close to $1 billion a year policy. We haven’t got that money, but what we can do for the students who don’t qualify for a student allowance is give a very soft loan with no interest, and that’s the right policy for those students and for New Zealand today, because there’s an incentive for them to stay in our country and put a stake down here and make their contribution.

$1 billion dollars a year? Remember, this is a government that projects a $7 billion dollar surplus, and once again she is telling us they don’t have enough money?

Honestly, do people really buy all the garbage she is putting out about not having enough money?

About that:

HILL: There are no economists as concerned about National’s tax cuts as you are.
CLARK: Oh, there are certainly economists who are saying that—
HILL: ‘Slightly inflationary’ is as far as they’ll go.

My Grandad did point out to me how the Labour government works. Basically, it taxes those who work harder (who deserve the amount of money they get) higher so then there is an even distribution of income. Sounds nice, but in this world, would you really work harder if the person next to you is being paid the same but doing less work? No, of course not. Then this starts going through the country.

The current petrol crisis is likely to cause serious inflation, especially since Labour is going to add another 5c tax on petrol in 2007 on top of the GST and the 5c petrol tax implemented late last year. The government seems to be telling us that petrol is bad, but isn’t offering any viable alternatives. Or at least making them known, with the news showing LPG as the cheaper way to go these days - again.

But don’t worry, you’ll get that 67c tax cut in 2008.

I don’t agree with the socialist view of ‘The government owns your ass.’ However, looking at the past Labour has sold off more SOEs than National so that is hardly a fair comment.

As said on Tonight on Thursday, it is a clear left/right election this year. On one hand we have a government who will give back tax to those who ‘need’ it. On the other, a government that gives tax cuts to everyone.

The election campaigns launch tonight at 7.30 on TV One. Time to keep an ear out for all kinds of random policies… oh wait, they have already happened! Here is a drinking game for those who think it is boring thus far.

Basically, TV One is going to be having most of the election coverage from today on, unless TV3 want another lawsuit against them I guess. View what they have planned so far here.

Last night more money appeared like “a rabbit out of a hat,” (nicely put Judy, or whoever writes the autocues) with more money being splashed around for families and that, effectively for low-income families not having to pay any tax at all. This comes after the embarrassing surplus. No, it is higher than expected now, $7.8 billion surplus is projected for next year. That is about the same as the student debt we have in this country. But wait, they have no money, no, it is a very tight budget and they can’t afford anything else except for things three years down the track.

There are two things that could happen. Either Labour will get massive support from everyone that has 10 children while earning only $40,000 between their partner. Or a massive backlash because of all this money that is lying around that was always there, they just overlooked it when it budget time.

Of course, bravo for the good election strategies Labour. As they were saying on the news last night, “underpromise, overdeliver.”

Speaking of election strategies, National’s ad for the “Taxathon,” while being tounge-in-cheek and highly amusing, but quite true, could have the same effect on them. They would either get massive support because National is right with all the taxes and the massive surplus, or a massive backlash because they overstepped the mark.

Labour announced it’s party policy yesterday on the student loans. What are they going to do? Interest Free Loans!

Now, before you go jumping around, going “Woo-hoo,” you must remember that you must stay in New Zealand to get this benefit. So, that may be me out of the picture (I plan on going to Europe when I finish study). Also, remember what student unions have been crying out for? Reduced student debt. They/we want something to resolve the debt now.

Firstly, let’s look at how the student loan scheme works in New Zealand:

• When you sign up, you go through an acceptance process. Many people get accepted because a loan is independent from what you or your parents earn. You just need to be enrolled in a full time course.
• If you want, the student loan will pay the university directly for your compulsory costs.
• The student loan can pay out a maximum of $150 every week for accommodation while you are on your course. That can be a total of $5250 a year (if your course goes for 35 weeks, this includes study breaks, holidays and exam periods).
• Additionally, the student loan can pay the student a maximum of $1000 per year of study to pay for “course related costs.” Some of these are no-questions asked. Some of these you must prove that you have spent the money. You can provide quotes, but they may come up and ask for the receipts later.

Now, the disincentive is the 7% compounding interest you get on it. That is a lot of interest, but this gets written off while you are studying. It is afterwards that is the problem. This encourages you to put less on your loan, and haul out your own money.

However as David Farrar has pointed out, with the disincentive gone you’ll be crazy to not take out a loan while studying. Sure it’ll be a pain to pay it back later as they strip it right out of your wages, but hey, at least it won’t grow on you!

The troubling questions are the ones that Susan Woods on Close Up had asked Trevor Mallard (the Tertiary Education/Education/Sports/”Real Deputy” Minister) about the scheme. Why wasn’t it offered before? Where is this money coming from? Didn’t the budget not have room? Where did this $1.9 billion of free spending money come from? Wasn’t it for the economic down-turn? Why wasn’t it then offerred at the budget? Why not decrease taxes instead?

Nationals sounds similarily attractive - a tax-write off. You still have that disincentive, but at least more of the money you are sending on to the government is decreasing how much you ultimately owe them. But then, for it to be really effective you need a well paying job, which is of course what you are working up to, isn’t it?

But then you need to ask yourself, will either party deliver? We all know that parties say one thing, but then do something else. One News showed this not so long ago, with a pre-Prime Minister Helen Clark on Holmes saying “We will decrease taxes,” only to increase them when she got it, and since then piling on the taxes. We now pay more taxes than ever, plus there is a healthy $4.8 billion surplus they are expecting each year for the next couple of years.

While at David Farrar’s blog, check out the Labour pledge cards, they’re great.

The election date has finally been set. Maybe if Labour announced it much earlier in the year, to be earlier in the year, then they would be having fun with a third term… maybe, just maybe. The date is now the 17th of September. Oh yay, I’m still not sure who to vote for, but I’m feeling like Labour is getting massively power hungry and will do anything right now. Unfortunately, neither party is doing anything about student debt, at least National has mentioned “student loans” in it’s latest policy, Labour still has to cough up the goods (or it was probably a case of “Oh shit, Don has got a policy for students! Damn I guess we’ll need one too!”).

If you haven’t already, now is the time to start making your very own National MSN-sized billboard. Go here to do so. There are already a couple of good ones, let’s take a look:


Think you can do better? Then make one! I’m dissapointed!

Meanwhile, TradeMe have a Don Brash role-playing kit.

Kit includes a copy of ‘Brash - A Biography’ by Paul Goldsmith (a useful reference tool), and a George Bush action figure (would you have done what he did? You can mull it over with this lifelike prop). We’ve also included a can of corned beef and a packet of dried peas (sorry, frozen don’t post so well) so that you can imitate Brash’s favourite meal[...]

It’s going for $6.50 right now.

Helen Clark doesn’t get out of it either, with this painting of “Foreshore Barbie.”

After seeing some interesting billboards being made, I thought it might be time to do some data checking. Now you can only enter up to 30 characters (that is the max anyway) and it won’t go over the bounds. Also the National text was pushed off the edge a bit.

I also modified the form a little to make it clearer what side you are typing in.

If you haven’t already, now’s the time to make your own National billboard in MSN picture form.

Last post I said I was thinking of making it, now I have.

Make your very own National Billboard MSN Picture.

Of course I’m not talking about your typical “Iwi/Kiwi” billboards. Make your own. I’m quite interested to see what you guys come up with. The best ones will be shown later.

The election as you know is coming, as I have no idea who to vote for I enjoy making MSN pictures to make fun of the parties, mainly of their billboards.

Get ‘em here!

Labour

National



If you still haven’t got the first one, they are talking about their partners.

I’m really tempted to do a “Create a National Personal Pic” just because it is so open.

Still no flatmate to be found.

Today the move didn’t happen. I’ll try tomorrow.

Meanwhile I was surfing the net and how fun the elections can be.

Labour had put up billboards starting its campaign. However it has gone totally off on the wrong foot. As far as I know it involves a baby hanging from red tape with some scissors involved or something. Meh, I haven’t seen it. But the take offs I’ve seen are funny. See them at David Farrar’s blog.

Meanwhile National has been having billboards up for a while now. They are actually quite decent. This is the most amusing:

If you love them so, but hate your friends, you can send them as e-cards with a nice “Support us!” message.

Marks off from Act for it’s plagiarised attempt. Some of them make no sense. Let’s take a look:

I wouldn’t consider the Act party a Hobbit. Especially if they are only polling at 3%.

I think this means that they are going to lower the drinking age again.

Unfortunate but true.

Got something better? Make one. Why? I don’t know.

Oh well. National has also stepped up efforts with NationalTV. God help us all!

Labour will also be handing out condoms to youth. On one side they’ll say “Be safe with Labour,” and on the other “Don’t get screwed by National.”